Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.428184 2.564378 2.711331 2.883058 3.080087 3.301463 3.572588
2025-03-16 2.217056 2.395087 2.597389 2.848573 3.158722 3.539217 4.059678
2025-03-23 2.129198 2.335813 2.579202 2.895140 3.308297 3.854316 4.683027
2025-03-30 2.012821 2.228294 2.487669 2.833814 3.303738 3.957626 5.031263
2025-04-06 1.913032 2.131628 2.398910 2.763000 3.271628 4.009108 5.304333
2025-04-13 1.837746 2.059514 2.334473 2.716056 3.263516 4.089545 5.644683
2025-04-20 1.806575 2.039917 2.334629 2.754093 3.378761 4.377909 6.479301
2025-04-27 1.796495 2.045673 2.367024 2.837989 3.571549 4.835876 7.959487
2025-05-04 1.759721 2.014291 2.346920 2.843660 3.640796 5.089008 9.164290
2025-05-11 1.724978 1.983603 2.325472 2.844723 3.701303 5.339139 10.660350
2025-05-18 1.673170 1.927966 2.266526 2.784711 3.650496 5.346894 11.295505
2025-05-25 1.639639 1.895500 2.238313 2.769556 3.675931 5.526891 13.018756
2025-06-01 1.607056 1.864746 2.213311 2.761294 3.719706 5.779656 16.068860
2025-06-08 1.567146 1.822721 2.170526 2.722405 3.703467 5.887058 18.860462
2025-06-15 1.554434 1.817134 2.179367 2.765973 3.847737 6.464202 34.856294
2025-06-22 1.514608 1.772625 2.129473 2.710094 3.790156 6.456983 43.014799
2025-06-29 1.474610 1.726791 2.076082 2.645729 3.709941 6.365014 48.380615
2025-07-06 1.442633 1.691309 2.036791 2.602930 3.670057 6.391129 70.786087
2025-07-13 1.433424 1.687274 2.043678 2.637610 3.793360 6.991669 NaN
2025-07-20 1.435244 1.698654 2.073847 2.713921 4.018166 8.130814 NaN
2025-07-27 1.419128 1.683935 2.063727 2.719070 4.085651 8.717021 NaN
2025-08-03 1.402823 1.668441 2.051755 2.720036 4.143691 9.325193 NaN
2025-08-10 1.374158 1.634471 2.010204 2.665488 4.062438 9.159125 NaN